[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 6N9W 4N19W ALONG THE EQUATOR W
OF 31W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 49W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO
INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 12W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND
FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 34W-46W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 22W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF WITH THE AXIS
ALONG 86W EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR LOCATED OVER
THE S GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF BRIDGING A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS
FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY TO INLAND OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR NEW
ORLEANS WITH A WEAKENING 1020 MB HIGH OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR
TAMPA. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PATCHES OF FOG DOT THE N
GULF N OF 25N TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF BY FRI NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE A
SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER NE
VENEZUELA. VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DOMINATE THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC
EXTENDS S OVER THE N CARIBBEAN MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. IN SPITE OF THE
VERY DRY AIR ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 58W-70W INCLUDING
THE WINDWARD AND ABC ISLANDS. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS USHERED
IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DOTTING THE AREA S
OF 17N E OF 86W. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE FAR W
ATLC W OF 70W WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 45W-70W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N48W
EXTENDING W ALONG 28N65W TO A WEAK 1017 MB LOW NEAR 30N77W. A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
DAYTONA BEACH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 57W. A NARROW BAND OF GALE
FRONT WINDS ARE E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS BRIDGING THE SURFACE RIDGE ESTABLISHED OVER THE W ATLC WITH A
1019 MB HIGH E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N69W. AN UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM S OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS AND ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS JUST OFF THE AFRICAN
COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE SAME AREA ANCHORED BY A 1028
MB HIGH N OF THE REGION OFF PORTUGAL EXTENDING AN AXIS EXTENDING
SSW THROUGH 32N22W TO 20N30W GIVING THE AREA E OF THE FRONT FAIR
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SE AND STALL
TONIGHT AND BE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC BY THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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