[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N11W 3N21W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 29W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S44W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N
BETWEEN 7W-17W AND FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 43 TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE GULF WITH THE AXIS ALONG
87W EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE THE ENTIRE GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SHIFTING E
COVERING THE E GULF E OF 90W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF FOG HAVE MOVED OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
COVERING THE AREA WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 25N82W TO OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY. A SECOND AREA OF SIMILAR
CONDITIONS IS OVER THE W GULF WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM OVER
MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN TO OVER THE TEXAS NEAR GALVESTON. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE N GULF FRI THEN WEAKENS AND LIFT N THROUGH SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE A
SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
BASIN. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE N
CARIBBEAN MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. IN SPITE OF THE VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH THE
SURFACE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 58W-70W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD AND
ABC ISLANDS. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS USHERED IN ON THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DOTTING THE SW CARIBBEAN
MAINLY FROM 10N-14N W OF 81W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE FAR W
ATLC W OF 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THIS PORTION OF THE W ATLC
N OF 25N W OF 60W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB
HIGH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN
45W-70W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 32N40W EXTENDING W ALONG 25N51W TO 24N66W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES TO 25N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE
FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING ALONG 15W FROM OFF THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 4N TO BEYOND
32N. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB
HIGH N OF THE REGION OFF PORTUGAL EXTENDING AN AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N20W TO 24N38W GIVING THE AREA E OF THE FRONT FAIR
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SE AND STALL
LATER TODAY THEN DISSIPATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
STALL ALONG 31N ON SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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