[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
7N12W SW ALONG 2N20W 1S35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM N OF
THE AXIS W OF 44W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90-120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W AND 33W...AND BETWEEN 38W AND 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE EAST
COAST OF THE U.S. CUTS THROUGH THE SE HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED WITHIN THE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 28N89W...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SUBSIDENT FLOW ALOFT
IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
BASIN. LIGHT SE RETURN FLOW IS BANKING SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE AND INTO SE TEXAS. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
VERACRUZ INDICATED BROKEN CEILINGS OF 1500 FT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WERE SWEEPING ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE GULF IN ADVANCE
OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE UPPER LEVELS DOMINATE THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE OVER NE BRAZIL AND THE
FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO. DIFFLUENT SW FLOW NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH WAS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF A
DISSIPATING SHEAR AXIS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN. THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS BEING OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED OVER BELIZE
AND HONDURAS BY LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF
HONDURAS. OTHERWISE...A DRY AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS IS
ACROSS THE AREA SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE BASIN.
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...TURNING NE
AT 76W...AND BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE FAR SW PORTION OF
THE BASIN GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA COAST BETWEEN 80W-84W.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS STRETCHING ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTING THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS
THE AREA THROUGH 32N35W...BECOMING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT THROUGH 32N40W 29N60W TO 25N67W...WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90-120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF BOTH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND THE COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE OCEAN ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
HIGH NEAR 28N37W. THIS SYSTEM IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER TO THE
REGION. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGING ACROSS THE STATIONARY
FRONT...EXPECT THE FEATURE TO DISSIPATE EAST OF 55W OVER THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF A NEW COLD FRONT SLATED TO
MOVE OFF THE SE COAST EARLY TUE AS A REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE EASTERN CONUS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

COBB




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