[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151111
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE FEB 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
7N11W SW ALONG 2N20W 2S35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180-240 NM N
OF THE AXIS W OF 44W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90-150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W AND 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE EAST
COAST OF THE U.S. CUTS THROUGH THE SE THIRD OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED WITHIN THE TROUGH AND OVER
MOST OF THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N89W...AND IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SUBSIDENT FLOW ALOFT IS PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. LIGHT SE
RETURN FLOW IS BANKING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO AND INTO SE TEXAS. RECENT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS INDICATED BROKEN
TO OVERCAST CEILINGS OF 3000 FT. FURTHER INLAND VICTORIA HAS
REPORTED VISIBILITIES OF ONE-HALF TO A ONE-QUARTER OF A MILE IN
FOG. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE SWEEPING ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF
THE GULF IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE UPPER LEVELS DOMINATES THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE OVER NE BRAZIL AND THE
FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME SE
GULF OF MEXICO. DIFFLUENT SW FLOW NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH WAS
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION
OF THE BASIN ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE REMNANTS OF A SHEAR
AXIS. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS BEING OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
OVER GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS BY LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS OF HONDURAS. OTHERWISE...A DRY AND STABLE UPPER
LEVEL AIRMASS IS ACROSS THE AREA SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE BASIN. WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA...TURNING NE ALONG 76W...AND BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE BASIN GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA
COASTLINES BETWEEN 80W-84W. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CONSTANT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHARP REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS EMERGED OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND IS NOW SITUATED ALONG 73W/74W AND IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH LOCATED N OF 25N W OF
58W. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT
JUST ENTERING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. FURTHER
EAST...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERED THE AREA NEAR
32N25W AND CONTINUED THROUGH 31N40W 31N50W TO 28N63W...WHERE IT
CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE ENTRANCE OF THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 90-120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND
THE TROUGH BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR
29N35W. THIS SYSTEM IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGING ACROSS THE STATIONARY FRONT...EXPECT
THE FEATURE TO DISSIPATE EAST OF 55W OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE NEW COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING THE
DISCUSSION AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

COBB





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