[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 142322
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA AT
6N11W SW ALONG 2N20W 3N35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S43W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 26W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM
5S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-35W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM S OF 4N W OF 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
28N88W...PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FLOW IS BANKING SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE FAR SW BASIN...GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 90 NM OFF THE MEXICO COAST FROM VERACRUZ TO MATAMOROS.
OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE NW BASIN FROM 15N-20N W OF
81W FROM THE PREVIOUS DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM EASTERN CUBA TO N CENTRAL HONDURAS. OTHERWISE...A DRY AND
STABLE UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS IS ACROSS THE AREA SUPPRESSING DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AT SURFACE
...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE AREA...TURNING
NE AT 76W...AND BANKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE FAR SW BASIN
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 70 NM OFF THE PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA COAST BETWEEN 80W-84W. THESE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO
ADVECT SOME LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE FAR SE BASIN S OF 15N E OF 66W. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN CONSTANT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE IS STRETCHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH 32N38W...
EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 30N52W...WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY
FRONT TO EASTERN CUBA ALONG 27N60W 25N66W 20N75W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF BOTH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND THE COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE OCEAN ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
HIGH NEAR 28N36W. THIS SYSTEM IS GIVING FAIR WEATHER TO THE
REGION. EXPECT THE STATIONARY FRONT TO LINGER OVER THE WEST ATLC
WITH SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 16 HOURS.
THEN...IT WILL START TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AND MERGE WITH A
COLD FRONT AS A NEW UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS THE EASTERN
CONUS SEABOARD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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