[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 12 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W ALONG 1N20W
CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 23W EXTENDING ALONG 2S TO NE BRAZIL.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 5N
W OF 36W ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W
AND 36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 17W AND
26W AND ON THE COAST TO OVER LIBERIA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 8W AND
12W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD FLAT UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS/GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF SW-W FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT IN THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE GULF S OF LINE FROM FLORIDA
NEAR 26N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N91W AND E OF 91W AND
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ANOTHER PORTION OF DENSE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BANKING ALONG
THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE THE GULF ANCHORED AT 12/1500 UTC BY A 1035 MB HIGH
OVER THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 29N95W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST OF
NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 12/1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W ALONG 21N82W TO 20N85W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY S TO THE NW COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W. DENSE LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN W OF THE FRONT INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. AN UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE E CARIBBEAN INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA TO THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER. HOWEVER...
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN
LIMITING DEEP LAYERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN PULLING IN LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 64W TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS FROM 14N TO HISPANIOLA
BETWEEN 71W AND 75W. THE TRADES ARE ALSO BANKING SOME SHOWERS
OVER NICARAGUA. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY LATER TODAY AS THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO N
HONDURAS BY TONIGHT THEN STALL AS THE COLD FRONT IS ALREADY
SLOWING AND DISSIPATE LATE SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD FLAT UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 67W TO OVER THE
E CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT
12/1500 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N65W ALONG 27N72W
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W TO CENTRAL CUBA AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N80W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. DENSE
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO
OVER S FLORIDA SE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1031
MB HIGH NEAR 28N39W AND A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO 24N69W...AND GIVING THE MAJORITY OF
THE ATLC S OF 32N FAIR WEATHER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA TO E CUBA BY TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING THEN
DISSIPATING BY MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MONTALVO/WALTON







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