[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 12 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W 2N20W 1N40W
CROSSING THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 49W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 4N W OF 36W
ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM THE COAST OF SERRA LEONE AFRICA NEAR 7N12W TO THE EQUATOR
NEAR 26W AND FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 44W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD FLAT UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS/GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
IN THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE GULF S OF LINE FROM FLORIDA
JUST S OF TAMPA ALONG 23N94W TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS BANKING ALONG
THE THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO AND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF
ANCHORED AT 12/0900 UTC BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER S TEXAS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 12/0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS
CUBA NEAR SAGUA LA GRANDE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY S ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE TO THE
COAST OF GUATEMALA. DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAIN W OF THE FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE COLD FRONT AND E OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN
WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN INDUCING AN
UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE
PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER. HOWEVER...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN LIMITING DEEP LAYERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL FAST MOVING ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAINLY FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 66W-74W INCLUDING PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATER TODAY AS THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM E
CUBA TO NE HONDURAS BY TONIGHT THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE LATE SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD FLAT UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W TO OVER THE
E CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT
12/0900 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N68W ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W TO OVER CUBA NEAR SAGUA LA GRANDE INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 45/60 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N WITH DENSE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 27N WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE
FRONT TO THE BAHAMAS THEN WITHIN 225 NM W OF THE FRONT ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A VERY
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ACROSS THE
CENTRAL INTO THE E ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 26N46W. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH SSW OF
THE AZORES NEAR 32N31W AND A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 28N38W WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO 27N66W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATE THE ATLC WATERS GIVING THE AREA FAIR
WEATHER TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM JUST E OF
BERMUDA TO E CUBA BY TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING THEN DISSIPATING BY
MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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