[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 12 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED ALONG 04N08W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 23W
THEN INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 03S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM 01N24W TO 00N28W. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 33W-38W
AND FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 42W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SE CONUS TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND
WESTWARD TO A BASE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 28N105W. SE OF
THIS TROUGHING...MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
SUPPORTIVE OF A PAIR OF 1034 MB SURFACE HIGHS...ONE CENTERED
NEAR LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA AND THE OTHER NEAR BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS. THE SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS EXPANSIVE COVERING A LARGE
AREA FROM THE FAR W ATLC AND FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND MUCH OF EASTERN MEXICO. WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE NW GULF WATERS...NE WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY
THE HIGH WILL LOCATE OVER THE NE GULF WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC
CROSSING CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
ALONG 22N80W TO 20N82W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 20N
TO 86W THEN SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. MOST
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE IS LOCATED NW OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT BETWEEN 83W-87W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AS A
RESULT...STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED W OF 78W THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING FRESH TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WITH RELATIVELY STABLE CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE CONCENTRATED IN THREE
AREAS MAINLY AS A RESULT OF LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE. THE
FIRST IS S OF 15N BETWEEN 60W-65W INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN LESSER
ANTILLES...THE SECOND AREA IS SW OF HISPANIOLA WITHIN 120 NM OF
A LINE FROM 20N72W TO 14N77W...AND THE THIRD IS S OF 15N W OF
82W INCLUDING MOST OF NICARAGUA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA
NEAR 32N65W TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 28N70W TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W THEN TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N79W. MOST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM NW OF
THE FRONT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. STRONG SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN WEST OF THE FRONT EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
28N38W. A LARGE AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT NE TO E WINDS IS LOCATED ON
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH COVERING THE AREA NORTH OF
THE ITCZ FROM 04N-19N BETWEEN 17W-61W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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