[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111735
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W
W-SW TO 01N28W THEN W TO EQ46W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 18W
AND 30W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 40W AND 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED TO THE EXTREME SE PART OF THE GULF
AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO NE PART OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND N TO NE
WINDS 10 TO 20 KT PREVAIL OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED ARE EVIDENT ALONG A NARROW BAND N OF THE FRONT
FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HIGH PRES OVER
TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...RESULTING
IN A REINFORCING PUSH OF N TO NE WINDS AND COLDER AIR IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. CONTINUED FETCH OF NE WINDS OVER THE
GULF WILL ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN 5 TO 8 FT S OF 25N THROUGH SUN.
HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E SUN
THROUGH TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRONT IN NW PORTION OF CARIBBEAN BASIN NEAR THE YUCATAN COAST
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRES RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REINFORCE NE WINDS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD
TO 10 FT N OF HONDURAS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPLITS APART EARLY SAT
MORNING NEAR CUBA...WITH THE WESTERN PORTION BECOMING DIFFUSE IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE EASTERN PORTION PUSHING FURTHER E AS LOW
PRES DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES N OF 30N. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS IN
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO WEAKEN TO AROUND 15 KT SUN
THROUGH TUE WHILE HIGH PRES SHIFTS W TO E ALONG 30N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
INTRODUCED A WEAK 1015 MB LOW ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT E OF
CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N79W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE N OF
THE AREA AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...WHICH WILL REINFORCE N TO NW
WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND CAUSE
THE BOUNDARY TO PUSH FURTHER SE AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
BAHAMAS SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N70W TO
W CENTRAL CUBA SAT MORNING...FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO EASTERN CUBA
SAT NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO STALL SUN AND EXTEND FROM 31N55W TO
25N65W SUN NIGHT AS A STATIONARY FRONT BEFORE DISSIPATING MON.
SUBTROPICAL HIGH NEAR 30N35W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING W TO NEAR 55W
WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE...WITH FRESH TO STRONG E-NE TRADE
WINDS AND NE SWELL 10 TO 15 FT CONTINUING S OF 22N ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CENTRAL ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH TUE.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

MUNDELL



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