[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112321
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA AT 5N10W TO 3N20W TO EQ30W TO
BRAZIL AT 1S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 17W22W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 25W-30W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-4N BETWEEN 36W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF E
TEXAS NEAR 30N94W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO W CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ALONG 24N80W 23N83W 21N88W DRIFTING SE. COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA S OF 27N. SIMILAR RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN
45 NM NW OF THE FRONT. 15-20 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE
OVER THE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF S OF 27N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...SW WINDS PREVAIL WITH 70-110 KT UPPER LEVEL WINDS N OF
24N. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE N OF 27N
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 27N. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO DRIFT SE
OF THE GULF IN A FEW HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N88W TO
BELIZE AT 16N89W WITH SHOWERS. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER N
COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W. PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 72W...AND OVER HONDURAS AND N NICARAGUA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 15N73W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
REMAIN OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE TRADEWINDS TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT
SHOWERS W OVER THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N77W. A
COLD FRONT IS EXTENDS S TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A WARM FRONT
ALSO EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO 30N65W WITH MORE SHOWERS WITHIN
45 NM N OF FRONT. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 33N27W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. THE USUAL TRADEWINDS ARE S
OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A VERY BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE
ATLANTIC N OF 20N. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 13N45W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTEND
FROM 31N66W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH SHOWERS.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA




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