[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111118
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N10W
W-SW ALONG 2N20W 1N30W EQ40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 20W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOST OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE
PAST DAY IS NOW OUT OF THE AREA INTO THE WEST ATLC. HOWEVER...
THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
THE NW COAST OF CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG 24N82W TO
21N87W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN WITHIN 35 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT AFFECTING MOSTLY THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 26N AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OTHERWISE...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KT ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR
THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS SHIFTING ESE OUT OF THE AREA WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE STATIONARY FRONT MENTIONED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO DISCUSSION
HANGS AROUND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL PRODUCING A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 35 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT ALONG 24N82W TO
21N87W. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SE ACROSS THE NW
BASIN TODAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...A VERY DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS
EVENING...PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN E OF 73W...PROVIDING
FOCUS FOR WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SE CORNER AND THE
CENTRAL BASINS. APART FROM THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE NW
BASIN...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC AND PART OF THE NE
CONUS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE IS
AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS
PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N60W AND
CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 30N70W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO STATIONARY
TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS ALONG 27N76W 24N81W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N
WHILE SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 35 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO...COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING NI THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT NEAR
30N75W IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE ATLC...ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR
35N32W. THIS FEATURE PROVIDES FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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