[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052320
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM SIERRA LEONE AT 8N13W TO 3N20W TO 1N40W TO
BRAZIL AT EQ48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST THE OF WEST AFRICA FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 4W-9W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 29W-31W...AND FROM
2N-4N BETWEEN 42W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E OF JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CONTINUES TO S MEXICO ALONG
31N79W 21N87W 17N94W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N93W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO W OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE HIGH CENTER.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN OVER THE NE GULF...THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND S GEORGIA FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 80-88W MOVING E.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE NW GULF ALONG THE COAST OF
TEXAS. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF
AROUND THE HIGH WHILE 10 KT SE WINDS ARE IN THE WARM AIRMASS E
OF COLD FRONT. THE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40'S AND 50'S ALONG
THE COAST OF THE N GULF STATES...AND IN THE 80'S OVER W CUBA. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS AND THE
NW GULF SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. A 90-130 KT JETSTREAM IS
OVER THE NW GULF N OF 22N W OF 90W. SOME HIGH CLOUD IS NOTED
OVER THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND THE NE GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE TO THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM
30N75W TO S FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. THERE WILL BE COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF.
ALSO THE UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM WILL INCREASE TO 110-150 KT OVER
THE N GULF N OF 26N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
S MEXICO ALONG 21N87W 17N94W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. 10-15 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. 15-20 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA...AND OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER N
COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. MORE SHOWERS ARE
ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH
AXIS ALONG 77W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR...THE FRONT TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
RETROGRADE N AND DISSIPATE. ALSO EXPECT THE TRADEWINDS TO
CONTINUE TO ADVECT SHOWERS W OVER THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT HAS JUST MOVED OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND RAIN N OF 29N W OF 79W. A 1024 MB HIGH IS
FURTHER E OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N58W. THE TAIL END OF A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
31N46W TO 30N50W TO 30N55W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT. A 1033 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER PORTUGAL NEAR 41N8W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
SW TO 30N30W. MOSTLY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC FROM W AFRICA TO 50W FROM 20N-30N...WHILE THE USUAL
TRADEWINDS ARE S OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 30W-60W WITH EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL
LOWS AT 15N55W...AND 21N39W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO BE MOVE
E TO 30N75W AND EXTEND SW TO S FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net