[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051735
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 4N ALONG 5N10W TO
5N18W...AND FROM 2N20W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W INTO NE
BRAZIL NEAR 02S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 4W AND 9W...AND FROM 5N-7N
BETWEEN 14W AND 17W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 16W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WITH AXIS FROM IOWA THROUGH WEST TEXAS THAT
IS PROVIDING SUPPORT TO A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED OVER GEORGIA NEAR
33N83W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S-SW FROM THE LOW ALONG
31N82W 26N85W 21N89W TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N95W.
MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE NE GULF N OF 25N...EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS 130 NM
W OF THE FRONT WAS AFFECTING THE W PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT S OF 25N. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FRONT
ALONG 26N85W AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N87W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FRONT IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE
ALONG 91W FROM 21N-19N GIVING THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA POSSIBLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF THE FRONT IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ON TWO 1026 MB
HIGHS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AND EAST MEXICO AND A 1021 MB HIGH
NEAR 29N92W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE W GULF BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES
THE TEXAS COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MUCH OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE W CARIBBEAN NE INTO THE W ATLC...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS ALONG 16N E OF 70W. AT THE SURFACE...FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES REMAIN PERSISTENT DUE TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NORTH OF THE AREA EAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N61W. PATCHES OF
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
CENTRAL WATERS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W...THE SE
CARIBBEAN S OF 12N E OF 70W ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA...THE
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 81W INCLUDING COASTAL WESTERN PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA...AND AN AREA WEST OF JAMAICA FROM 14N-19N
BETWEEN 80W-85W. CLUSTERS OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED OF SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 50W
AND 56W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING..
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST AND LEEWARD SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AS
FRESH TRADES BLOW ACROSS LAND AND INTO THE E PACIFIC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA AS THE
ABOVE MENTIONED LOW OVER GEORGIA AND COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO MOVES EASTWARD AND SUPPORTED BY A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
ALONG 78W FROM 29N TO 31N. LATER TODAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD PROVIDING FOR THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN WITH SW
SURFACE FLOW TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BY LATE
SATURDAY THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO POSITION OFFSHORE OF THE SE
CONUS ACROSS THE W ATLC TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1025 MB HIGH
CENTERED EAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N61W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT IS ANALYZED SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE HIGH FROM 32N47W TO
30N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT BETWEEN 50W AND
57W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 32N45W TO 28N54W WITH
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ALONG THE AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 57W FROM 12N-15N.
ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
INFLUENCED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1036 MB HIGH
WITH MEAN CENTER OVER THE IBERIAN PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS S AND SW. A DRY LINE IS ANALYZED ALONG 27N17W
22N24W 13N25W 8N21W DEPICTING THE DRY AIR BOUNDARY FROM A BURST
OF SAHARAN AIR OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MONTALVO/STRIPLING




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