[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 07N11W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W AND INTO
NE BRAZIL NEAR 02S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 15W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS
WITH AXIS FROM IOWA THROUGH WEST TEXAS THAT IS PROVIDING MOSTLY
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THIS
MORNING. FURTHERMORE...THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1011
MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING S-SW FROM THE LOW ALONG 22N90W TO THE
SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N95W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NE
GULF N OF 27N...EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA
AND PORTIONS OF SE GEORGIA AND MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT
S OF 27N. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF THE FRONT IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. WHILE CURRENTLY PROVIDING
N-NW WINDS UP TO 20 KT W OF THE FRONT...THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BRINGING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST LATE SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MUCH OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N80W NE INTO THE W ATLC...AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 16N E OF 70W. THIS OVERALL PATTERN
IS ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUBSIDENT NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES REMAIN
PERSISTENT DUE TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
AREA EAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N62W. PATCHES OF ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...OVER THE CENTRAL
WATERS AND HISPANIOLA FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 71W-74W...THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 81W INCLUDING COASTAL WESTERN PANAMA AND
MUCH OF COSTA RICA...AND AN AREA WEST OF JAMAICA FROM 15N-20N
BETWEEN 80W-87W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. IS SUPPORTING A
1013 MB LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N76W
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 31N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE REMAINING MOSTLY NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND INLAND
ACROSS MUCH OF SE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. LATER TODAY THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD PROVIDING FOR
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN WITH SW SURFACE
FLOW TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BY LATE SATURDAY THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO POSITION OFFSHORE OF THE SE CONUS ACROSS
THE W ATLC TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF
THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED
EAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N62W. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS INFLUENCED BY A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1039 MB HIGH WITH MEAN CENTER OVER THE
IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 41N06W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW
FROM THE HIGH ALONG 32N27W TO 27N44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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