[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 06N11W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W
AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 02S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 13W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS
WITH AXIS FROM IOWA THROUGH WEST TEXAS THAT IS PROVIDING MOSTLY
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THIS
EVENING. FURTHERMORE...THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1011
MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 30N87W WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING S-SW FROM THE LOW ALONG 23N90W 21N91W TO THE SOUTHERN
MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N91W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING
DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EAST OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 86W...EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND A LARGE
PORTION OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT S OF 28N.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF THE FRONT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 28N104W. WHILE CURRENTLY PROVIDING N-NW
WINDS UP TO 20 KT W OF THE FRONT...THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BRINGING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST LATE SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MUCH OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
ALONG 80W FROM WEST OF JAMAICA N-NE TO THE W ATLC...AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 17N E OF 72W. THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS
ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUBSIDENT WESTERLY OR WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES REMAIN
DUE TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR
BERMUDA. PATCHES OF ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...OVER THE ABC ISLANDS S OF 13N BETWEEN
63W-70W...OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS AND HISPANIOLA FROM 13N-20N
BETWEEN 68W-73W...THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 82W INCLUDING
COASTAL WESTERN PANAMA AND MUCH OF COSTA RICA...AND AN AREA WEST
OF JAMAICA FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 78W-82W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. IS SUPPORTING A
WEAK 1015 MB LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR
33N77W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERING SW TO THE FLORIDA
COAST NEAR SAINT AUGUSTINE NEAR 30N81W...THEN WESTWARD INTO THE
NE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS ALONG 30N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
REMAINING MOSTLY NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND INLAND ACROSS
MUCH OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. LATER TODAY THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD PROVIDING THE FRONT WITH
MOVEMENT ONCE AGAIN AND BY LATE SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND OFFSHORE OF THE SE CONUS ACROSS THE W ATLC TO THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER BERMUDA NEAR
33N64W. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC IS INFLUENCED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1039
MB HIGH WITH MEAN CENTER OVER THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 42N06W.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH ALONG 32N27W TO
28N43W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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