[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA AT 6N11W TO 3N20W TO 1N30W TO
BRAZIL AT 3S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST THE OF WEST AFRICA FROM EQ-3N
BETWEEN 2W-8W...AND FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 10W-15W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 25W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED S OF MISSISSIPPI NEAR
29N88W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG
25N90W 19N92W 18N84W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO N
FLORIDA ALONG 30N87W 29N82W 31N80W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER
THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF THE COLD FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
RAIN OVER THE NE GULF...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND S ALABAMA
FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 85-88W MOVING E. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE SE GULF TOGETHER WITH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
20-25 KT NW WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE
10-15 KT SE WINDS ARE IN THE WARM AIRMASS E OF COLD FRONT. THE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40'S AND 50'S ALONG THE COAST OF THE N
GULF STATES...AND IN THE 80'S OVER W CUBA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER TEXAS IS SUPPORTING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM. A 90-110 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE N GULF N OF
28N. SOME HIGH CLOUD IS NOTED OVER THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND THE NE
GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
30N80W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION. THERE WILL BE A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
ALSO THE UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM WILL INCREASE TO 110-150 KT OVER
THE N GULF N OF 27N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. 15-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA...AND OVER THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER N
COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
ALONG 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR...RAIN AND SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE
TO THE COLD FRONT. ALSO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
31N60W TO 30N70W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT. A 1035 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF
PORTUGAL NEAR 41N12W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 32N30W
AND CONTINUES TO 28N43W. MOSTLY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS NOTED
FROM W AFRICA TO THE BAHAMAS FROM 20N-28N...WHILE THE USUAL
TRADEWINDS ARE S OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 20W-60W WITH EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL
LOWS AT 16N53W...AND 30N23W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO BE OFF
THE COAST OF N FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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