[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN FEB 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 08N13W 02N23W 01N42W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 46W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 01S48W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 25W-32W AND FROM
02N-05N BETWEEN 36W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
WITH AXIS FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND FAR WEST TEXAS THAT IS PROVIDING MOSTLY SW UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THIS EVENING. FURTHERMORE...
THE EXTENSION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EASTWARD OVER THE NE
CONUS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM MELBOURNE TO FORT MYERS AND INTO
THE SE GULF TO 23N85W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN MEXICO. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO OVERRUN THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 27N92W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC BRINGING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST LATE SUNDAY USHERING
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MUCH OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA ALONG 76W TO THE BAHAMAS AND THEN N-NE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC BEYOND BERMUDA NEAR
32N65W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALSO EXTENDS
AN AXIS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 15N E OF 70W. AT THE
SURFACE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES REMAIN PERSISTENT DUE TO A
RELATIVELY STRONG 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA WELL
EAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N55W. PATCHES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATING AN AREA OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N W OF 78W...AND
AN AREA FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 78W-86W. A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE DRIFTING BACK
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NE CONUS IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM
CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 36N76W S-SW TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR MELBOURNE. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1026
MB HIGH CENTERED WELL EAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N55W. A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE S OF 23N BETWEEN 40W-70W WITH SURFACE EASTERLIES IN
THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 06/0108
UTC DEPICTED THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS NE OF PUERTO RICO AND
NORTH OF THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS INFLUENCED BY A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH WITH MEAN CENTER OVER THE IBERIAN
PENINSULA NEAR 42N06W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM
THE HIGH ALONG 32N23W TO 27N40W. A WEAK COLD FRONT BRIDGES THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH EAST OF BERMUDA AND AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE...WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 32N40W TO
28N47W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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