[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 07N12W 02N18W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 22W THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE ALONG 01S27W TO
04S29W RESUMING NEAR 04S33W TO 01S41W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR
02S45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 07N BETWEEN 15W-29W. AN EQUATORIAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM
04N39W TO 01S41W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 35W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
GENERALLY WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL
U.S. PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...SE WINDS DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN
AS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ALONG 32N TO SW
MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N91W. THE SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AND REMAIN STRONGEST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC
NEAR 06N50W TO NORTHERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N70W WITH MOSTLY WEST
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS
FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF
14N BETWEEN 65W-72W. AT THE SURFACE...MOSTLY LIGHT EASTERLY
TRADES ARE PROVIDING RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE OCCURRING FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN
66W-71W...AND FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 74W-77W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
LOCATED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS FROM 28N78W TO 22N74W.
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A WEAK 1015 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 23N76W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW NORTHWARD TO 27N75W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS COVERING THE AREA FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 72W-75W. THE MORE
INTENSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ABACO AND
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NW BAHAMAS AND IS LIKELY ENHANCED DUE
TO THE MAXIMUM MID-LEVEL DYNAMICAL LIFTING. THE REMAINDER OF THE
W ATLC W OF 50W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED E OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N60W.
THE LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A WEAKENING
TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. E OF
50W...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION NEAR
35N33W AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N32W EXTENDING SW TO 27N40W THEN WESTWARD AS A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TO 27N48W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net