[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251119
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

FROM NORTHERN COASTAL LIBERIA TO 3N25W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR
ALONG 25W...3S30W...INTO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 6S36W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 15W AND 27W...FROM 2N TO 3N
BETWEEN 30W AND 31W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 37W AND
44W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO TEXAS. THIS
TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
AND INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 70W AND THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 75W FROM CUBA TO 27N. A 1014 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 23N. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
22N TO 27N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO EASTERN
LOUISIANA BEYOND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA
BORDER BEYOND HAITI. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS DUE TO BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA INTO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE
FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW...FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 63W AND 70W...BETWEEN 60W AND THE ISLANDS AND FROM THE
GREATER ANTILLES TO 20N...TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 78W AND
83W...AND FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TO WESTERN JAMAICA TO GRAND
CAYMAN.

REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 70W...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 36N33W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 26N34W 21N36W TO 19N50W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 28N40W TO 30N47W. BROKEN LOW
TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N59W TO 32N70W
BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 25N34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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