[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE TO 3N20W 1N30W...AND THEN FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN 30W AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR
50W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 12W AND 24W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N
BETWEEN 35W AND 38W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO
30N BETWEEN 70W AND THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 73W/74W FROM 20N TO 26N. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 23N. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
IN THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W. BROKEN LOW
LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE IN
THE WATERS THAT ARE OFF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM 26N TO 30N
TO THE EAST OF 85W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 31N80W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...BEYOND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE UPPER TO MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA
BORDER BEYOND HAITI. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS DUE TO BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA INTO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE
FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 70W...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 36N34W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 31N34W 26N35W TO 22N40W...AND TO 18N52W. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 30N40W TO
31N44W. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N62W TO 32N69W 31N80W BEYOND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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