[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252302
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON APR 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W EQ18W 3S30W 1N41W 1S50W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 10W-18W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 1N-8S BETWEEN 20W-30W...AND FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 39W-46W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5S-8S BETWEEN 30W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
10-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW DOMINATES FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER FLORIDA FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN
81W-83W DUE TO SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND CUBA BETWEEN 77W-84W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND NEAR VERACRUZ
MEXICO FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 96W-99W. FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER
THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL
FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUD IS OVER S MEXICO AND THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE
S OF 23N W OF 95W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...CONTINUED SE SURFACE
FLOW WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA WITH HIGHEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.
CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER E
PANAMA...COLOMBIA...AND NW VENEZUELA FROM EQ-12N BETWEEN
68W-78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W PANAMA...AND S
GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER W PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH BANDS OF SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S
OF 15N E OF 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE S CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 15N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE S BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 24N-27N
BETWEEN 75W-77W. A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 33N59W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTEND W TO E TEXAS.
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N31W TO 26N40W. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES W TO 26N50W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N32W SUPPORTING
THE E ATLANTIC FRONT. A 70 KT SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM
E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 18N50W TO W AFRICA AT 21N17W. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE SURFACE LOW CENTER TO
DISSIPATE...AND FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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