[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT APR 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR
5N9W SW ALONG 2N20W 1S30W 2S40W INT0 BRAZIL NEAR 3S47W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A REMNANT CLOUD/SHEAR AXIS IS
ANALYZED N OF THE ITCZ FROM 3N35W TO 2N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THIS AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT NOTICED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SCENARIO
IS SUPPORTING A 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N84W. THIS
FEATURE EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE AREA TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND THE HIGH
CENTER...BECOMING SW 10-20 ELSEWHERE S OF 26N W OF 87W. WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE THIS LATE AFTERNOON. THIS AIRMASS ALOFT IS
KEEPING WEATHER CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT FAIR OVER THE A GREAT
PORTION OF THE HIGH SEAS IN THE WESTERN REGION OF THE BASIN.
15-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.
THE STRONGEST TRADES ARE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ARE
BANKING SHOWERS ONTO THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA...SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COASTLINE. THIS FLOW IS ALSO ADVECTING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE BASIN E OF 74W. LAST VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOWED
AREAS OF BROKEN CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE FAR EAST BASIN S OF 16N E OF 68W.
ANOTHER AREA OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY WAS FOUND IN THE CENTRAL BASIN
FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 70W-76W. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN
...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR SE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOST OF THE ATLANTIC WITHIN OUR DISCUSSION AREA S OF 29N IS
DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE BASIN. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES CROSS
THE WESTERN ATLC N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...SUPPORTING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 34N62W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE
LOW CENTER AND BARELY ENTERS OUR AREA FROM 32N67W TO 29N72W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. THIS IS
BECAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS MOVING ESE FAIRLY
QUICK...RELOCATING THE CONVECTION N OF 28N BETWEEN 56W-64W. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE
CONVECTION. ALSO...A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE N ATLC SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ENTERING THE AREA AS
STATIONARY FROM 32N41W TO 30N51W...BECOMING WARM FROM THIS POINT
AND EXITING THE REGION NEAR 32N60W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT IS S OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM 30N30W TO
25N53W. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO IT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC E OF 40W IS UNDER SURFACE RIDGING FROM A 1030 MB HIGH W OF
THE AZORES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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