[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100504
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN APR 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG12N15W 3N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W
CONTINUING T0 BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF LIBERIA FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 8W-15W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3S BETWEEN 24W-34W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 5N-3S BETWEEN
43W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF TAMPA FLORIDA NEAR 28N83W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. 5-10 KT
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF. THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF HAS 10-20 KT SE WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE
W GULF W OF 90W WHERE THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 93W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WIND ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER AND THE SW CARIBBEAN...N
COLOMBIA...PANAMA... AND COSTA RICA S OF 11N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 11N. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N76W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE BAHAMAS. A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR BERMUDA
AT 33N65W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 30N70W 29N75W AND THEN
CONTINUES NW TO SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N81W. MOST ALL
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS N OF 32N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FURTHER E OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N40W TO 26N63W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. THE TAIL END OF A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N40W TO 31N47W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1032 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 39N18W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
SW FROM THE HIGH TO 26N40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE LOWS ARE CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA AT
36N76W... AND AT 34N59W...SUPPORTING SURFACE LOWS AND FRONTS. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC S OF 20N. EXPECT
THE FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE SE WITH SHOWERS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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