[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT APR 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N10W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W
CONTINUING T0 BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 11W-17W...AND ALONG THE
COAST OF BRAZIL FROM EQ-4S BETWEEN 36W-42W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-2N BETWEEN 17W-32W. ANOTHER AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N
BETWEEN 35W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE AREA WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS
FROM A 1021 MB HIGH IN THE NW ATLANTIC. FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE... ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTS. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL WLY FLOW DOMINATES THIS REGION. AT THE
SURFACE... THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN IS ENJOYING FAIR
WEATHER TODAY DUE TO DUE AIR ALOFT. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE
ADVECTING PATCHES OF BROKEN CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 70W-73W. THE
STRONGEST TRADES ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND ARE
BANKING SHOWERS ONTO THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
COASTLINE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE  FAR W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N76W PRODUCING
RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A
WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING INTO THE
AREA ALONG 32N43W 30N52W TO 32N63W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 51W AND WITHIN 60
NM N OF THE FRONT W OF 51W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS
ALONG 31N40W 27N47W 25N53W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN
30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA E
OF 40W IS UNDER SURFACE RIDGING FROM A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE
AREA SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED E OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO WEAKEN AND THE STATIONARY FRONT TO
DISSIPATE COMPLETELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS LEAVING ROOM FOR
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE S INTO THE AREA N OF THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MONTALVO/WALTON







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