[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE BORDER BETWEEN LIBERIA AND SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 8N11W ALONG 3N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W
INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 4N-5N BETWEEN 17W-19W...FROM 1N-2N BETWEEN 33W-36W...AND
FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 39W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MIDDLE-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF WHICH SUPPORTS A WEAK 1016
MB SURFACE LOW N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N90W. AS OF
2100 UTC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW TO
24N85W...AND A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW ALONG
22N91W 19N92W. LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE N OF THE WARM FRONT
ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EVIDENT IN TRMM SATELLITE RAINFALL
DATA. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO W
OF THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF DRY AIR ALOFT...AND SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NE CENTERED OFF
THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ALLOWING
SURFACE RIDGING TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE BASIN. S-SE RETURN FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE FAR W GULF ALONG THE COAST OF
TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY SWLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED N OF VENEZUELA. MOISTURE FROM THE E
PACIFIC IS STREAMING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN IN THIS
SWLY FLOW SUPPORTING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. THE ERN HALF OF THE
BASIN IS UNDER DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR SUPPORTING CLEARER SKIES.
PATCHES OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE
NRN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS INCLUDING CUBA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO...AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO NOTED OVER AND N OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WHICH MAY BE ENHANCING SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS. FRESH TO STRONG SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE BASIN AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE N ACROSS THE W ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EWD ACROSS THE W ATLC
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N61W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR
24N75W...AS OF 2100 UTC...CONTINUING AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 75 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GRADUALLY DISSIPATING
CLOSER TO THE BAHAMAS. CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER ARE IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT AS A 1025 MB HIGH BUILDS OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA. FARTHER E...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 39N42W SUPPORTED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ERN CARIBBEAN TO NEAR
31N51W THEN CONTINUING UP 45W. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
28N COVERS THE FAR E ATLC SUPPORTING A 1008 MB LOW SE OF THE
AZORES ISLANDS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER INTO
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N23W ALONG 27N25W 22N34W CONTINUING
AS A SHEAR AXIS INTO THE SURFACE RIDGE TO NEAR 18N51W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWER ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE SHEAR AXIS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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