[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 06N10W 02N22W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W
THEN INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 11W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 06/1500 UTC...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF THAT
SUPPORTS A WEAK 1016 MB LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 23N89W. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA TO 23N85W WHERE THE BOUNDARY
CONTINUES WESTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE LOW CENTER.
THE FRONT ALSO EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR
CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY OCCURRING NE
OF THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE SE GULF FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN
85W-90W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A WEAKENING TREND
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE BASIN BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH SE RETURN FLOW IN THE RANGE
OF 10 TO 20 KT...STRONGEST W OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR
12N68W PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
STREAM OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM PANAMA ACROSS JAMAICA AND
EASTERN CUBA THAT CONNECTS UP WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE W ATLC ALONG 68W. AT THE
SURFACE...EASTERLY TRADES CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO A STATIONARY RIDGE
LOCATED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT WESTWARD ACROSS THE BASIN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING
OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 68W-71W...AND IN
THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE W ATLC WATERS WITH
TROUGH AXIS ALONG 68W THAT DIPS SOUTHWARD TO 28N. THE THOUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N67W THAT
EXTENDS SW TO THE NW AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W THAT
CONTINUES WESTWARD THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE MUCH LESS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM
EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS E-NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND N OF 25N. A 1024 MB
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
CURRENTLY IS PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES
OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC N OF 27N W OF 72W. FARTHER
EAST...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 28W WITH AN AXIS
THROUGH 32N28W 24N31W TO A BASE NEAR 20N40W. THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N24W AND EXTENDS SW TO 24N33W...THEN BECOMES A SHEAR LINE
W-SW TO 20N52W. A RECENT 06/1316 UTC ASCAT PASS DEPICTED
STRONGER NE WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN 42W-54W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N46W N OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR
LINE AND A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
29N13W EAST OF THE COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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