[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061136
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

FROM THE CENTRAL LIBERIA COAST...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 17W
TO 2S30W...INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S44W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE
SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 7W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST
SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST...
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC IN MEXICO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF MEXICO.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY WINDS
COVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TOWARD THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 20N97W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
240 NM TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
28N71W TO 24N80W. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ALSO ARE TO THE NORTH OF
25N TO THE WEST OF 60W IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. RAINSHOWERS
REMAIN FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO CENTRAL GUATEMALA...
TAKING PLACE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT IS ORIENTED FROM VENEZUELA TOWARD CUBA. THE EARLIER
PRECIPITATION IN COLOMBIA HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. IT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTH-TO-SOUTH MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH THAT REMAINS
IN THE AREA. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA...IN CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING WESTWARD WITH THE TRADEWIND
FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 70W...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 25N33W TO 22N37W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO
26N33W TO 23N41W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 23N41W TO 22N48W
AND 22N54W. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 TO 75 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N25W 26N30W
21N40W...AND WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR
AXIS. A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW APPEARS TO BE
CUT OFF FROM THE REST OF THE EARLIER TROUGH PATTERN...COVERING
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT/SHEAR AXIS...MOVING AROUND A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 34N48W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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