[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060626 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 06 2011

CORRECTION TO UPDATE THE ITCZ AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE EAST OF 70W

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE CENTRAL LIBERIA COAST TO 1N18W TO 1N50W IN EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 14W AND
24W...AND FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 44W AND 47W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST
SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N74W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN
SOUTH FLORIDA...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN MEXICO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE PACIFIC OCEAN COAST
OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY AND
WESTERLY WINDS COVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/
ALABAMA TOWARD THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 20N97W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
270 NM TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO
28N71W TO 22N78W ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
ALSO ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 60W IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ACTIVE DURING
THE LAST SIX HOURS OR SO FROM THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
INTO CENTRAL GUATEMALA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS TAKING PLACE NEAR
A SURFACE TROUGH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT IS ORIENTED FROM VENEZUELA TOWARD CUBA. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TROUGH APPEARS TO BE IN THE AREA OF COLOMBIA...WHERE
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE COUNTRY FROM 6N TO 10N
BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO 22N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND
80W...IN CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING WESTWARD WITH THE TRADEWIND
FLOW. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE IN CUBA TO THE EAST OF 79W
POSSIBLY RELATED TO THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THAT EXISTS TO THE
EAST OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 70W...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 25N37W TO 17N47W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO
26N33W TO 23N41W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 23N41W TO 22N48W
AND 22N54W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT/SHEAR AXIS...MOVING AROUND A 1030 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N51W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO IS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...MOVING
AROUND A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS CENTERED NEAR
24N26W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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