[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE CENTRAL LIBERIA COAST TO 1N18W TO 1N50W IN EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 14W AND
24W...AND FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 44W AND 47W.
\
\/3WSTRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO
5N BETWEEN 7W AND 11W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE
EAST OF 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST
SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N74W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN
SOUTH FLORIDA...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN MEXICO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE PACIFIC OCEAN COAST
OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY AND
WESTERLY WINDS COVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/
ALABAMA TOWARD THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 20N97W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
270 NM TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO
28N71W TO 22N78W ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
ALSO ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 60W IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ACTIVE DURING
THE LAST SIX HOURS OR SO FROM THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
INTO CENTRAL GUATEMALA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS TAKING PLACE NEAR
A SURFACE TROUGH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT IS ORIENTED FROM VENEZUELA TOWARD CUBA. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TROUGH APPEARS TO BE IN THE AREA OF COLOMBIA...WHERE
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE COUNTRY FROM 6N TO 10N
BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO 22N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND
80W...IN CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING WESTWARD WITH THE TRADEWIND
FLOW. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE IN CUBA TO THE EAST OF 79W
POSSIBLY RELATED TO THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THAT EXISTS TO THE
EAST OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N37W TO 27N43W. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 27N42W TO
23N50W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 23N50W TO 22N60W AND 24N70W.
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN
75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N34W
27N40W 25N47W 24N50W FOR THE COLD FRONT...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR AXIS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT/SHEAR AXIS...AROUND THE 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N60W. THE COLD FRONT IS GENERATING THE
FOLLOWING CONDITIONS...TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF THE
FRONT TO 35W...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RANGING FROM 20 TO
25 KT...SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FT IN NORTHWESTERLY
SWELL. THE WEATHER THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF
THE FRONT TO 50W IS...WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS RANGING
FROM 20 TO 25 KT...AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 12 TO 16 FT IN
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND
A RIDGE THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. THE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 32N23W...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
26N33W...TO 20N41W AND 19N56W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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