[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE BORDER OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA TO 4N20W TO 2N27W...
CURVING TO 1N36W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 42W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4S49W. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 36W AND 38W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO
2N BETWEEN 46W AND 49W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN
10W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE
AREA. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
TOWARD CUBA. THE SURFACE WIND PATTERN CONSISTS OF A RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N74W...TO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO 26N95W AND
COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 22N98W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT ALSO
CONSISTS OF A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N91W.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTHERN
COAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A WEAKENING WARM FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 24N84W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW
LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST
OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE AREA.
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW HAS A STRONG EASTERLY
COMPONENT. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN THE
VENEZUELA BORDER AND THE BORDER WITH PANAMA. THIS PRECIPITATION
IS OCCURRING JUST TO THE EAST OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH.
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
NORTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 81W...IN CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS THAT
ARE MOVING WESTWARD WITH THE TRADEWIND FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 25N33W TO 22N37W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO
25N26W TO 21N34W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 21N34W TO 19N45W
AND 18N54W. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N22W 25N24W
21N32W 19N46W 17N52W 21N59W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N27W TO 24N27W AND
22N30W. ANOTHER BRANCH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
22N30W TO 12N43W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE 22N30W 12N43W BRANCH
MAY BE CUT OFF FROM THE PART THAT IS MORE TO THE NORTH. IT IS
NOT THAT CLEAR IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES. A RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 27N51W AND 23N62W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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