[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N9W
ALONG 3N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 37W AND INTO NE
BRAZIL TO NEAR 5S50W. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING
OFF THE LIBERIAN COAST FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 7W-11W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-3N BETWEEN
22W-33W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 2S-EQ BETWEEN 37W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS FAIRLY CLEAR TONIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1014 MB HIGH IN THE NE
QUADRANT NEAR 28N87W. THE ONLY EVIDENCE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS A
BROKEN LINE OF LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM JUST N OF WRN CUBA INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N88W. WEAK ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS
AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15
KTS ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE. ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL WLY FLOW
DOMINATES AROUND THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY DRY AIR.  WITH A LONGWAVE UPPER
RIDGE APPROACHING THE AREA...SURFACE RIDGING ALONG WITH MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER WILL REMAIN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACH THE
AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN ALSO REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC. MAINLY
SWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST N OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N69W. THIS UPPER
RIDGE IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS. UNDERNEATH THE HIGH
CLOUDS SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE PRESENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES ENHANCED
MOISTURE IN THIS SAME LOCATION. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF MOISTURE FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN
79W-82W. THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
VERY DRY AIR WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT POSSIBLE
SHOWERS OVER THE NRN ISLANDS AS THE REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE N MOVES SOUTHWARD...AS WELL AS NEAR THE AREA OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WHICH APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING NW. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE FAIR WEATHER WITH THE OCCASIONAL TRADEWIND SHOWER.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS IMPACTING THE FAR W ATLC WITH A LONGWAVE
UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE ERN CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING DOWN THE
ERN SEABOARD SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N66W CONTINUING SW TO THE NE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W AND
DISSIPATING INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 180 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N...AND A SMALL
CLUSTER OF STORMS IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE BAHAMAS
APPROACHING GEORGE TOWN NEAR 23N77W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. FARTHER E...A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 29N37W WHICH IS PROVIDING MOSTLY
FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS NE FROM THE ERN CARIBBEAN TO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
35N49W THEN CONTINUING NWD. THE FAR E ATLC IS COVERED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE AZORES ISLANDS
ALONG 38W WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING SW TO E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
CUTS INTO THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 32N15W TO 27N30W. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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