[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012216
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI APR 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N10W
CONTINUING SW ALONG 2N20W 1N30W EQ40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S50W.
SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 70 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-35W. AN AREA OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS S OF THE AXIS FROM 1S-6S BETWEEN 15W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE FAR EASTERN GULF OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW OUT OF THE AREA. ONLY A REMNANT CLOUD
BAND LINGERS IN THE FAR SE BASIN NOTED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE GULF IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ANALYZED AS A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR
28N86W. THIS BENIGN SYSTEM IS PRODUCING ANTI-CYCLONIC LIGHT TO
MODERATE FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. ALSO...DRY AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS FURTHER SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA...LEAVING THE GULF UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING. THIS AIRMASS ALOFT IS
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR ONLY
ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEGINNING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN.
LAST VISIBLE PICTURES OF THE DAY SHOWED THIS AREA FROM 13N-19N
BETWEEN 75W-81W. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
IN THIS AREA. THIS AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY AND PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. MARINE OBS
ACROSS THE BASIN INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH SURFACE FLOW FROM
THE SE...BECOMING SSE W OF 78W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD DEEP TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD
SUPPORTING AN OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OFF THE
COAST OF NEW ENGLAND REGION. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SSW FROM THIS
SYSTEM AND ENTERS OUR DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N70W CONTINUING SW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS ALONG
27N74W 24N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AREA WITHIN 25 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE OCEAN IS DOMINATED BY A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC.
THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 30N35W.
HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A COLD FRONT CUTS IN THE
RIDGE FROM 32N20W TO 27N30W. WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 20
NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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