[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021137
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT APR 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N8W
ALONG 3N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W AND INTO NE
BRAZIL TO NEAR 4N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 9W-22W. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS FROM 1S-4N BETWEEN 22W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1015 MB HIGH IN THE NE QUADRANT NEAR
26N85W. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EVIDENT ON RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS COASTAL LOUISIANA AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WRN GULF STATES. WEAK
ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
INCREASING TO 10 KT ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE. ALOFT...MAINLY
ZONAL WLY FLOW DOMINATES AROUND THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY DRY AIR. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MEXICO IS PROVIDING A
DIFFLUENT REGIME OVER THE FAR SW GULF WHICH IS RESULTING IN A
SMALL AREA OF POSSIBLE SHOWERS NEAR 22N95W. WITH A LONGWAVE
UPPER RIDGE APPROACHING THE AREA...SURFACE RIDGING ALONG WITH
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WILL REMAIN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACH THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN ALSO REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC. MAINLY
SWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST N OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N69W. THIS UPPER
RIDGE IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS. UNDERNEATH THE HIGH
CLOUDS SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE PRESENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES ENHANCED
MOISTURE IN THIS SAME LOCATION. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF MOISTURE FROM THE PANAMA COAST TO
16N BETWEEN 75W-81W. THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF VERY DRY AIR WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES.
EXPECT POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER THE NRN ISLANDS AS THE REMAINS OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE N MOVES SOUTHWARD...AS WELL AS NEAR THE
AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WHICH APPEARS TO
BE SHIFTING WWD. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE FAIR WEATHER WITH THE OCCASIONAL TRADEWIND SHOWER.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS IMPACTING THE FAR W ATLC WITH A LONGWAVE
UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE ERN CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING DOWN THE
ERN SEABOARD SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N63W CONTINUING SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR
24N77W AND DISSIPATING INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 220 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF
27N...AND AN AREA OF STORMS IS WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IN THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN 73W-76W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. FARTHER E...A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 29N36W WHICH IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
NE FROM THE ERN CARIBBEAN TO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 37N45W THEN
CONTINUING NWD. THE FAR E ATLC IS COVERED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING E OF THE AZORES ISLANDS ALONG 22W
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING SW TO E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
THAT CUTS INTO THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 32N17W TO 27N30W.
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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