[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED SEP 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE IS CENTERED NEAR 31.6N 99.5W AT
08/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 25 NM S-SE OF BROWNWOOD TEXAS AND ABOUT 50
NM S OF ABILENE TEXAS MOVING N AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. PLEASE SEE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER TCPAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT35 KWNH. HERMINE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA. IN
ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC IS ALONG 21W/22W S OF 20N WITH A
1008 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. WAVE/LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
A BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION THAT IS FROM 9N-17N BETWEEN
16W-30W WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 20N COVERING THE AREA FROM
11N-24N E OF 30W. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP
LEVEL MOISTURE AS INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
THIS IS SCENARIO IS ENHANCING NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM
15N-18N E OF 19W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 23W-26W. THIS SYSTEM
IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED NEAR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N24W 8N44W 10N44W INTO THE
CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N62W AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS
NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM 28W-33W AND WITHIN
45 NM OF LINE FROM 8N37W TO 4N49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS T.D. HERMINE EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS E-NE ACROSS THE SE U.S. COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS
DRAWING DRY STABLE AIR S OVER THE GULF WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE
FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA SW TO TUXPAN MEXICO. DENSE
HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE NW GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90
NM ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE N CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND OVER S
FLORIDA PENINSULA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N TO THE COAST OF CUBA E OF 85W ACROSS THE
S FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLC AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND
OVER S MEXICO AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE BETWEEN 92W-95W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NE TO E UPPER FLOW COVERS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W WHILE AN
ELONGATED N/S UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST S OF CUBA NEAR 21N80W
EXTENDING N OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND S TO 15N BETWEEN
76W-84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF
19N TO ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN 77W-87W. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 76W.
BENEATH IS UPPER RIDGE IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
21N66W THROUGH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW...REMNANTS OF GASTON...NEAR
17N66W TO 14N66W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 66W-72W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE ITCZ CROSSES THE FAR S CARIBBEAN
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N TO
OVER COLOMBIA BETWEEN 72W-77W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE N CARIBBEAN EXTENDS N OVER THE W ATLC TO
25N W OF 76W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N80W ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN VERO
BEACH AND HOMESTEAD TO OVER CUBA NEAR 22N81W AND GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N E OF 76W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE
FLORIDA COAST. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER T.D. HERMINE EXTENDS
AN AXIS ACROSS THE SE U.S. INTO THE W ATLC TO 33N75W. A SECOND
UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC 24N60W WITH A NARROW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 32N71W
SW TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY STABLE AIR
COVERS THE ATLC FROM 10N-31N BETWEEN 38W-65W. HOWEVER...BENEATH
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 21N66W
INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS PUERTO RICO GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N INTO THE CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN 65W-72W. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING TOWARD THE TURKS AND
CAICOS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022
MB HIGH ABOUT 300 NM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. AN E/W UPPER
RIDGE IS ANCHORED W AFRICA EXTENDING AN AXIS W ALONG 20N INTO
THE E TROPICAL ATLC TO 30W. BENEATH IS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
SPACIAL FEATURES ABOVE AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
22N32W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 18N33W TO 13N32W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN 30W-35W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE AZORES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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