[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081153
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC IS ALONG 23W S OF 18N WITH A
1005 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. WAVE/LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
A BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION THAT IS FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN
13W-30W WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 21N COVERING THE AREA FROM
14N-24N E OF 35W. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP
LEVEL MOISTURE AS INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
THIS IS SCENARIO IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 14N-19N E OF 22W TO JUST INLAND OVER W AFRICA.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 14N FROM 23W-25W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 12N24W TO
16N28W. THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED NEAR THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THIS SYSTEM ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 9N28W 8N40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 5N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM 35W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES
EXTENDS A RIDGE ALONG 32N ACROSS THE SE U.S. INTO THE W ATLC
COVERING MOST OF THE GULF WATERS DRAWING DRY STABLE AIR WITHIN
200 NM OF LINE FROM OVER FLORIDA SW TO 22N95W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE
COAST FROM TAMPICO MEXICO TO MATAGORDA BAY TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE N CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO S
FLORIDA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
26N W OF 85W TO OVER CUBA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 22N TO THE COAST OF S MEXICO BETWEEN 93W-96W. THIS
IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN ELONGATED N/S UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND IS
CENTERED S OF CUBA NEAR 20N80W EXTENDING N OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND S TO 15N BETWEEN 75W-86W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N TO ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN
79W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 76W.
BENEATH IS UPPER RIDGE IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
21N67W THROUGH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 17N68W TO 14N67W. THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 13N ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE MONA PASSAGE
BETWEEN 66W-73W. THE ITCZ CROSSES THE FAR S CARIBBEAN FROM
COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 72W TO OVER COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE N CARIBBEAN EXTENDS N OVER THE W ATLC TO
26N W OF 75W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 30N80W
ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN VERO BEACH AND MIAMI TO 23N80W IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N E OF 77W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60
NM ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA COAST S OF DAYTONA BEACH.
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE U.S. EXTENDS AN AXIS INTO THE
W ATLC TO 32N75W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N61W WITH A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BETWEEN EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 32N66W SW TO NEAR 28N74W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE ATLC FROM 10N-31N
BETWEEN 40W-65W. HOWEVER...BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE IS A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 21N67W INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N70W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO 23N74W. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH ABOUT 200 NM OFF
THE SOUTH/NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS ARE
ROTATING AROUND EACH OTHER AND ARE CENTERED NEAR 28N50W AND
31N42W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N57W TO
27N50W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN E/W
UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED W AFRICA EXTENDING AN AXIS W ALONG 21N
INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC TO 35W. BENEATH IS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 22N32W THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 19N33W TO 16N35W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45
NM OF LINE FROM 17N31W 19N33W TO 19N36W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE AZORES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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