[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD CIRCULATING 1011 MB LOW IS LOCATED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
22N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE LOW CENTER FROM
NEAR 28N67W ALONG 24N68W 22N70W AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N71W 18N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF
ERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND PUERTO RICO N OF 17N
BETWEEN 66W-78W. STRONGER CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS
FROM 21N-29N BETWEEN 60W-67W. THIS SYSTEM GETS ITS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING NEAR 27N68W PROVIDING A
DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT TO THE E WHERE THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION
IS. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS
AS IT MOVES MAINLY N. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NE OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN 18 HRS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 7N36W TO 1N37W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
THIS LOCATION IS E OF THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS BASED ON
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE WAVE
AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-7N BETWEEN 33W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED FROM 9N52W TO 2N51W MOVING W 10-25 KT.
LOCATION IS BASED ON LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL
COMPUTER MODEL DATA INDICATING A TRACKABLE AREA OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE AND ENERGY ALONG WITH CYCLONIC FLOW FROM ACROSS THE
ATLC TO CURRENT LOCATION. BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CAN ALSO
BE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES
WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 49W-55W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 2N-5N
BETWEEN 50W-52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 47W-49W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61/62W S OF 9N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE LIES W OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N80W ACROSS PANAMA AND INTO THE E
PACIFIC ALONG 7N80W 4N83W. BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS
ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE LIES EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE W ATLC AND FAR E PACIFIC.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N
BETWEEN 78W-82W. MORE CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN THE E PACIFIC.
SEE THE E PACIFIC TWD FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N20W 4N30W 5N40W 2N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 10W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 25W-29W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 43W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE
NE KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE BASIN. THE SURFACE RIDGE
IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM S OF MEXICO
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE GULF AND NWD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT FURTHER GENERATING THE FAIR WEATHER. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS NOTED ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N92W TO 18N88W.
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NW OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N-23N
BETWEEN 92W-94W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS IMPACTING THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 19N85W TO
ERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH
ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 13N-19N
BETWEEN 81W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN 71W-80W ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS
THIS AREA. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA ARE ALSO
ATTRIBUTED TO A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE W ATLC. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE
SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 78W-82W DUE TO SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
 DRY AIR ALOFT FLOWING FROM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS KEEPING
CONDITIONS FAIR W OF 75W. HOWEVER...A BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS
AFFECTING MUCH OF THE REMAINING W ATLC. A 1011 MB LOW IS
CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 22N70W WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 28N67W 24N68W 22N70W AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N71W 18N73W. THE SYSTEM IS BRINGING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
MUCH OF THE W ATLC. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS
ON THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS
OF A PREVIOUS LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION...EXTENDS FROM 25N74W
ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TO NEAR 22N72W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO E AND N OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
FROM 14N-23N BETWEEN 53W-60W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THIS AREA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE
RIDGING ANCHORED BY A STATIONARY 1030 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES
ISLANDS NEAR 36N36W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE N OF 30N ALONG 36W. S OF 30N A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG 38W ALLOWING MAINLY SWLY ALOFT FROM NE SOUTH AMERICA TO
THE W AFRICA COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net