[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 22/0900 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N73W TO AN
EMBEDDED 1011 MB LOW AT 24N73W TO HAITI AT 18N72W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA S OF THE
LOW. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
1012 MB LOW HAS RECENTLY FORMED 270 NM FURTHER E AT 25N68W. THIS
NEW LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE A GALE LOW BY SUNDAY 23/1800 UTC. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ESPECIALLY TIGHTEN N OF THE LOW CENTER. THE AREA
OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE N WITH TIME AS THE LOW CENTER
TRACKS N. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PRESENTLY CENTERED
NEARBY AT 27N68W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER CENTER.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN
62W-68W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 10N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE CONTINUES TO SHOW SLIGHT LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 7N AND COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVE
MAXIMUM IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PREDOMINATELY ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 5N-7N
BETWEEN 33W-41W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 11N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
AS IT MOVES OVER PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL W ATLC AND GUYANA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA ALONG 79W/80W
S OF 11N MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM NW NICARAGUA AT 13N87W TO THE E
PACIFIC REGION NEAR 6N91W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN
84W-91W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 7N20W 4N40W TO N BRAZIL AT
4N51W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 12W-19W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 25W-30W...AND FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 47W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE WEST
ATLANTIC TO THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A
1009 MB LOW IS HOWEVER OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR 20N89W PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF THE CENTER. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE GULF
ARE PREDOMINATELY 10-15 KT FROM THE SE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT... MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 0900 UTC... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LOW OVER BELIZE AND N GUATEMALA. IN ADDITION
...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FURTHER S...TWO
TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA MOVING SLOWLY W. SEE ABOVE. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF GUATEMALA NEAR 14N92W. ZONAL FLOW IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA E OF 85W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF
THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT...
CONTINUED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 70W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT
MORE SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO SURFACE LOWS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. A 1030 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N36W PRODUCING EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N41W. EXPECT...THE SPECIAL FEATURE TO BE
THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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