[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220607
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 22/0300 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS
ALONG 30N73W 25N73W 20N71W. A 1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE
TROUGH AXIS NEAR 25N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS AND ALONG THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE A NEW LOW FORMS SOME
240 NM FURTHER E. THIS NEW LOW WILL BE A DEEP LAYERED LOW WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOVE IT PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER
CENTER AND CONVECTION. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN N OF THE
CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY 1800
UTC. THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE N WITH TIME AS THE
LOW CENTER TRACKS N.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 10N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE CONTINUES TO SHOW SLIGHT LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 7N AND COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVE
MAXIMUM IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 27W-41W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 31W-41W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 11N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
AS IT MOVES OVER PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL W ATLC AND SECTIONS OF
SURINAME AND GUYANA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 53W-60W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 11N78W TO EASTERN PANAMA NEAR
9N79W AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION MOVING W-NW AT 5-10 KT.
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND EVENTUALLY INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS
LARGELY SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 73W-80W AND CONTINUES TO BE
ENHANCED BY A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM N NICARAGUA AT 13N86W TO THE E
PACIFIC REGION NEAR 6N90W MOVING W-NW AT 5-10 KT. NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE WAVE CONTINUE SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 10N-16N
BETWEEN 84W-91W. A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO SUSTAINED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS AS ENERGY FROM THE WAVE FRACTURES AND
MOVES NW.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 8N20W 4N40W AND INLAND TO N
BRAZIL AT 4N51W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-9N BETWEEN 15W-29W...AND FROM EQ-7N BETWEEN 47W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE WEST
ATLANTIC TO THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A
1008 MB LOW IS HOWEVER OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR 21N89W PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF THE CENTER. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE GULF
ARE PREDOMINATELY 10-15 KT FROM THE SE. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED.
EXPECT...SHOWERS OVER W CUBA FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 0300 UTC... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LOW FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 87W-90W. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W
OF PUERTO RICO TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FURTHER S...TWO
TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA MOVING SLOWLY W. SEE ABOVE. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF GUATEMALA NEAR 14N92W. ZONAL FLOW IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA E OF 85W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF
THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT...
CONTINUED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT
MORE SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N73W. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE
SECTION ABOVE. A 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
39N38W PRODUCING EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN
20W-60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N69W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN
63W-69W.  ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N42W. EXPECT...THE SPECIAL FEATURE TO BE
THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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