[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAY 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THIS TROUGH...NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...AND SUPPORTS A BROAD 1011 MB SURFACE LOW CENTER NEAR
25N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE LOW CENTER FROM
NEAR 28N66W ALONG 25N67W 22N70W 23N74W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH
IS ANALYZED EXTENDING FROM 23N65W TO HISPANIOLA ALONG 20N68W TO
NEAR 192N72W. MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 18N TO 30N BETWEEN 58W AND 72W. DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT TO THE
EAST WHERE THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION IS...IS PROVIDING FURTHER
SUPPORT TO THIS SYSTEM. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE LOW
CENTER WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HRS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W FROM 5N TO 10N MOVING WEST AT 12 KT.
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 14W AND 18W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N MOVING WEST AT
10 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING ALONG WITH THE ITCZ AND ITS LOCATION
IS BASED ON COMPUTER MODEL DATA INDICATING A TRACKABLE AREA OF
WIND SHIFT. MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FOUND EAST OF THE
WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN
35W AND 40W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA CONTINENT
ALONG 53W FROM 2N TO 11N MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. THIS WAVE LIES IN
A REGION OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
6N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 6N20W 4N30W 5N40W 3.5N50W.
ASIDE AREAS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
FAIR WEATHER OS NOTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. AT SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED CROSSING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N94W TO
NEAR CIUDAD DEL CARMEN NEAR 18N92W. WEAK CONVECTION RELATED TO
THIS TROUGH EXTENDS AS FAR NORTH AS 26N BETWEEN 92W AND 95W. A
1017 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FOUND OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W FURTHER PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS TO THE
NORTHEAST BASIN...EXCEPT FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
PANHANDLE WEST OF 84W DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING
AND SEA/LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM
19N86W SOUTHWARD TO 14N84W. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM
13N TO 19N BETWEEN 81W AND 86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO EMBEDDED ON THE TRADEWINDS FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 74W
AND 81W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT CROSSES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
IS ALSO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
HISPANIOLA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN WEST OF 79W SOUTH OF 13N DUE TO
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 25N67W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM 28N66W TO THE SURFACE
LOW CENTER NEAR 25N67W CONTINUING WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG 22N70W TO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED EXTENDING FROM 23N65W TO HISPANIOLA ALONG 20N68W TO
NEAR 192N72W. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY ARE PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM
18N TO 30N BETWEEN 58W AND 72W. FOR FURTHER DETAILS REGARDING
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHS SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES DISCUSSION ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTING
A SURFACE 1030 MB HIGH SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR
36N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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