[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N21W 3N28W 2N46W TO NE BRAZIL
NEAR 1N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN
09W-16W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 36W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON ANCHORED BY A
1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N92W. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SE CONUS OVER THE NW GULF AND
NORTHERN MEXICO WITH MAINLY W-SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW INDICATED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF. THIS UPPER LEVEL REGIME LACKS ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS
THEREFORE RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE E-NE BY MID-WEEK WITH
INCREASED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEGINNING ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF WEDNESDAY AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW
GULF WATERS EARLY SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND BECOMES STATIONARY
AS IT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 21N77W 19N81W TO THE
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS BORDER NEAR 15N83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 19N AND WITHIN 120 NM
W OF THE FRONT S OF 19N. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE
LOCATED EAST OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
COLOMBIA AS CAPTURED BY EARLIER MORNING WINDSAT AND ASCAT
PASSES. ALOFT...WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW RESIDES E OF
82W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND
CLEAR SKIES AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS POSITIONED OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N69W EXTENDING ALONG 25N72W TO THE SE
BAHAMAS THEN CROSSING EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
24N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDING FARTHER EAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO 62W. S OF 24N...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THE SE BAHAMAS AND CROSSES EASTERN CUBA.
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N BETWEEN 47W-63W. EAST OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N38W
AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 28N40W TO 21N50W WHERE THE FRONT
DISSIPATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150
NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 24N WITH LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 24N. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
34N44W AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
ALONG 44W SOUTHWARD TO 16N. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 18N45W TO
BEYOND 32N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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