[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312329
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAR 31 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N9W ALONG 3N20W 2N30W
EQ40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL AT 1S53W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 7W-15W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 15W-19W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
EVENING ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1022 MB HIGHS...ONE S OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE SECOND W OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA. LIGHT
ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE RIDGE REACHING 15 KT
ACROSS THE WRN GULF. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE W GULF. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIES
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE
BASIN. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS AS SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE W GULF AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS
LATE FRI AND EARLY SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC BARELY ENTERS THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO NEAR 20N74W. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE
FARTHER INTO THE N CARIBBEAN ACROSS JAMAICA AND E CUBA. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 14N81W TO THE COSTA
RICA/PANAMA BORDER NEAR 10N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 12N
BETWEEN 81W-84W. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH
DRY AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
UNDER GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE
ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC CENTERED SE OF MAINE
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NE
UNITED STATED COAST. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N60W ALONG 27N64W 22N69W TO
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 27N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 53W-60W. FARTHER E...A SECOND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC. A WEAKENING 1010 MB
LOW IS NEAR 28N43W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING AROUND THE
LOW ALONG 27N22W 25N43W 24N48W 26N53W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
IS THE E...REMNANTS OF A PREVIOUS FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...EXTENDING ALONG 31N38W 25N38W 21N43W 19N51W CONTINUING
AS A SHEAR LINE TO THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE AND
TROUGH S OF 25N...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE
FRONT N OF 25N. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 29N382W WITH AXIS ALONG 38W. ACROSS THE E
ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB
HIGH N OF THE AZORES ISLANDS MAINTAINING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 18W SUPPORTS THE SURFACE RIDGE.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM EARLIER TODAY INDICATES A LARGE
AREA OF DUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA S OF 22N EXTENDING TO THE E
CARIBBEAN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON








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