[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAR 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N8W 4N24W 2N43W TO INLAND OVER NE
BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ E OF 14W TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA...
WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 1.5N4.5W AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ
FROM 45W-49W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ
FROM 15W-23W...FROM 31W-35W AND FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 42W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH
NEAR 24N94W. ZONAL UPPER WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERING THE GULF N OF
25N. THIS SCENARIO IS GIVING MOST OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING WITH SOME BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE S
GULF. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO  ENTER THE GULF LATE FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 30/0900 UTC...COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO E HONDURAS
NEAR 15N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. ZONAL UPPER
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT.
CONVERGENCE OF THE SURFACE WINDS TO THE E OF THE FRONT AND THE
TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM JUST W OF JAMAICA NEAR
18N79W TO OVER E CUBA NEAR 21N77W. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE ALSO
BANKING LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 73W-79W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 30/0900 UTC...COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N71W
EXTENDING ALONG 26N73W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN
OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
24N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 NM E AND 150 NM W OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. THE
UPPER SUPPORT IS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 26N FROM 67W TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 22N BETWEEN 50W-65W ANCHORED
WELL N OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 32N40W EXTENDING ALONG 25N43W TO 22N47W WHERE IT DISSIPATES
TO 21N53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
150 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 24N. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS
FRONT IS N OF 22N FROM 35W-52W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E
ATLC N OF 18N E OF 35W WITH A 1028 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE






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