[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAR 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13N 2N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 49W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 35W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 29/1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO FORT MYERS AND INTO
THE SE GULF ALONG 27N82W TO 21N87W AND INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS EAST OF THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO KEY WEST TO WESTERN CUBA
THEN INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS
SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH
AXIS FROM OVER GEORGIA TO 25N90W IN THE CENTRAL GULF. IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT...A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS S OF 22N WEST OF THE COLD FRONT...INCLUDING THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT CONTINUES TO
GENERATE POSSIBLE AREAS OF FOG AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDS
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CANCUN TO VILLAHERMOSA MEXICO.
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR
22N84W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. THIS AREA OF THE NW CARIBBEAN IS LOCATED EAST OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED
BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA EXTENDING NE INTO
THE W ATLC ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND VERY
DRY STABLE AIR. THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL STABILITY IS
INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION E OF 82W. HOWEVER...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE DUE TO THE INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A WESTERN ATLC SURFACE RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE SE
CONUS AND SUPPORTS A 1003 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR CHARLESTON SOUTH
CAROLINA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO THE FLORIDA COAST
NEAR DAYTONA BEACH WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS
COVERING THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 72W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS
ALSO ANALYZED FROM THE LOW TO 30N78W TO DELRAY BEACH FLORIDA AND
INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS COVER THE AREA S OF 24N W OF 80W. FARTHER EAST...THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS INFLUENCE BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS AN AXIS ALONG 61W TO 23N61W. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N43W AND EXTENDS SW
TO 23N53W BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG 21N60W TO 22N66W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 23N W OF 35W TO THE COLD
FRONT. S OF 23N...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 37N48W THAT
EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM THE LOW TO 23N52W.
ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED
SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N30W. ALSO OF NOTE...VISIBLE METEOSAT-9
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF DUST ACROSS THE
TROPICAL NORTH ATLC S OF A LINE FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO
20N40W TO EASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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