[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291033
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAR 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N8W 3N15W 2N28W TO INLAND OVER NE
BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE ITCZ FROM 36W-40W. SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM THE EQUATOR 3N E OF 15W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 29/0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS NEAR VALDOSTA GEORGIA
INTO THE GULF OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA ALONG 26N84W TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY
INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N87W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE GULF E OF FRONT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLC EXCEPT S OF 25N TO 80W.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE S OF A LINE FROM THE FRONT NEAR 27N84W ALONG 22N90W TO
INLAND OVER MEXICO N OF TAMPICO NEAR 23N97W. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SUPPORTING THE FRONT IS MOVING NE OVER THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS COVERING THE GULF N OF 25N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR ALOFT N OF 26N W OF 86W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING
BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OVER NE MEXICO NEAR
26N99W. ZONAL UPPER WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF S OF 24N.
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 29/0900 UTC...STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN
NEAR 21N87W ALONG THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE
BELIZE/ GUATEMALA BORDER TO NEAR 16N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE FRONT. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W
ATLC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE N
COAST OF COLOMBIA. ZONAL UPPER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
ENTIRE BASIN. THUS..FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS
BEING USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS MAINLY OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 29/0900 UTC...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE W ATLC W OF A LINE FROM 25N77W TO BEYOND
3276W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
ACTIVITY PRECEDES THE FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 22N BETWEEN 53W-74W
ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N46W EXTENDING SW ALONG
26N50W TO 22N57W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 21N63W AND
DISSIPATES JUST TO THE E OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 22N72W. A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N53W TO 17N57W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 275 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 23N. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS N
OF 22N FROM 42W-62W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 18N
W OF 42W WITH A 1023 MB HIGH 300 NM SE OF THE AZORES. THE FIRST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATES THE LARGE AREA OF DUST COMING
OFF OF AFRICA EXTENDS W TO A LINE FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS SW TO
14N41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE




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