[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292330
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAR 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W ALONG 3N20W 2N30W
2N40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL AT THE EQUATOR AND 52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN
35W-49W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-2N
BETWEEN 35W-49W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
BRAZIL FROM 2S-4N BETWEEN 50W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 29/2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS NOW MOVED OVER THE W ATLC LEAVING IN ITS
WAKE A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. NW
WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND ERN GULF BEHIND THE
FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ACROSS THE WRN GULF ANCHORED BY A 1019
MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 27N95W MAINTAINING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE ERN
GULF ALONG 85W...SUPPORTING THE FRONT NOW IN THE W ATLC. DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE BUILD ACROSS THE NRN GULF N OF 26N WITH A SMALL
E-W SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 22N-26N SUPPORTING A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
GULF KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 29/2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING ACROSS W CENTRAL CUBA...E OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH...TO
BELIZE ALONG 23N80W 20N84W 18N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE FRONT ALONG 21N80W TO
16N84W. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS AND ERN GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN KEEPING
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN UNDER GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN THE FAR SW BASIN
OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA WITH STRONGER SHOWERS INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO CONTINUE MOVING E INTO
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS AND ERN GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA. AS OF 29/2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND PREVIOUSLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA HAS MOVED OVER THE W ATLC WATERS ENTERING THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N76W TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W TO W
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N80W. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY LIES E OF
THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS N OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-76W.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO N OF 29N E OF THE FRONT TO 67W.
FARTHER E...A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
EXTENDING FROM A 1035 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES NEAR 48N51W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W. A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM
COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 36N48W. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N42W ALONG 26N46W
22N53W BECOMING STATIONARY TO NEAR 22N66W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 24N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND N OF 24N BETWEEN 37W-42W.
THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
37N47W WITH AXIS ALONG 47W. ACROSS THE E ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE AREA ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGHS NEAR THE AZORES
ISLANDS MAINTAINING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALONG 28W SUPPORTS THE SURFACE RIDGE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
FROM EARLIER TODAY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF DUST EMERGING OFF
THE COAST OF AFRICA TO 43W...WITH LESS DENSE AMOUNTS OF DUST
EXTENDING TO 55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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