[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270512
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAR 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N27W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 40W THEN INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE
ITCZ FROM 22W-25W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE MOVING
ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 4W S OF 3N ACROSS THE EQUATOR.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 27/0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR
25N80W FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDING TO 23N83W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
MOSTLY S OF 22N TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. THE UPPER SUPPORT
FOR THIS FRONT COVERS THE GULF N OF 26N E OF 94W INTO THE W
ATLC. NEAR ZONAL UPPER WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT COVERING THE
ENTIRE BASIN. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N GULF
NEAR 29N88W. THUS...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT EXCEPT OVER THE SW GULF WHERE RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS
PERSIST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST N OF THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COULD MOVE INTO THE
FAR NW CARIBBEAN WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. NEAR ZONAL UPPER WESTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE ENTIRE BASIN.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.
THUS..FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN ALTHOUGH SOME WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS
DOTTING THE AREA ARE USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 27/0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N71W
EXTENDING SW ALONG 27N76W ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
26N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 120 NM ALONG N OF THE COAST OF CUBA W OF 76W INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS N OF
26N W OF 70W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED IN THE S/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 24N45W THROUGH A
1012 MB LOW NEAR 19N45W TO 16N44W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DEFINE THIS FEATURE COVERING THE
AREA FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 41W-47W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
N/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N36W EXTENDING TO 26N43W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N
OF 29N. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS N OF 22N FROM
30W-45W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 20N W OF 65W WITH
WEAKNESSES IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. A 1024 MB HIGH IS IN THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N51W AND A 1028 MB HIGH IS IN THE NE ATLC
400 NM N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE




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