[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAR 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N9W 4N14W 3N27W ALONG THE EQUATOR
FROM 47W TO INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE ITCZ FROM 22W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 27/0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING A
STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N80W TO
23N83W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
22N87W TO 18N89W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75/90 NM
W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE GULF N OF 26N E
OF 88W INTO THE W ATLC. NEAR ZONAL UPPER WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR ALOFT COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE N GULF NEAR 28N87W. THUS...THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXCEPT OVER THE SW GULF
WHERE RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS PERSIST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS N OF THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE. NEAR ZONAL UPPER WESTERLY
FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES
THE ENTIRE BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST
OF N COLOMBIA. THUS..FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN ALTHOUGH SOME WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE BEING USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 27/0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N66W
EXTENDING SW ALONG 28N72W TO OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N77W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY CONTINUING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150/180 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS N OF 26N W OF 66W INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM
23N48W THROUGH A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 19N47W TO 16N45W. BROKEN/
OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DEFINE THIS
FEATURE COVERING THE AREA FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 41W-49W. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 25N33W
TO 19N36W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS DEFINE THIS FEATURE
COVERING THE AREA FROM 18N-26N BETWEEN 30W-37W. A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE NE/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N32W EXTENDING SW TO
28N37W DISSIPATING TO 26N42W. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS N OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS N OF 21N FROM
27W-42W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 22N W OF 60W WITH
WEAKNESSES IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC AND SURFACE TROUGHS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. A 1022 MB
HIGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N49W AND A 1028 MB HIGH IS IN
THE NE ATLC 400 NM OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE







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