[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAR 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 40W THEN INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 16W-18W...AND FROM
3N-4N BETWEEN 23W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 27N80W 20N89W MOVING E. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS RAIN OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM
23N-25N BETWEEN 81W-84W. ELSEWHERE...A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N93W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER
AND 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS. FURTHER S...BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.
A 90-110 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE GULF N OF 25N. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE GULF TO EXPERIENCE 10-15 KT SE RETURN SURFACE FLOW
WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER EXCEPT OVER THE SE GULF WHERE RESIDUAL
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF 19N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N75W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WINDS
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER CENTRAL CUBA
WITH SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N73W TO S FLORIDA
NEAR 27N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT.
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
33N55W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N38W TO
27N45W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES SW TO 25N50W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONTS. A 1025 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N18W. IN THE TROPICS A
WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N44W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 40W-46W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-50W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 40W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE W
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N61W TO E CUBA WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM 32N28W TO 25N35W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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