[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAR 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N28W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 40W THEN INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 13W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 26/1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM MELBOURNE TO VENICE FLORIDA AND INTO THE
SE GULF ALONG 25N85W TO 23N87W WHERE IT CONTINUES STATIONARY TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA COAST. DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC AND LIGHTNING DATA
INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E
OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OVER THE SE GULF.
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO LINGER WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT S OF 23N...INCLUDING A PORTION OF THE SW
GULF S OF 23N BETWEEN 89W-95W. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS
THE NE GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA SUPPORT THE FRONT AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER THE MID-ATLC STATES MOVES
OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. ALOFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF...WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED WITH RELATIVELY
DRY STABLE AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO. THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE NW GULF WATERS EARLY SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N72W COVERS THE BASIN PROVIDING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN AS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON AS FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE AS CAPTURED BY SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS
AS WELL AS EARLIER MORNING WINDSAT AND ASCAT PASSES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLC
STATES AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N76W. IT CONTINUES SW TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR MELBOURNE AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 25N W OF 74W.
FARTHER EAST...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS BETWEEN 50W-74W AND
A SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ANCHORED BY
A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N58W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N41W EXTENDING SW TO 26N49W THEN BECOMING
STATIONARY AND WEAKENING WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE TO 25N58W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE
FRONT N OF 28N WHILE ELSEWHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY S OF 28N. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS
ANALYZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 17N44W TO 26N44W.
CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 16N-25N BETWEEN 39W-47W.
THIS WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS THE RESULT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 43W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N19W PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER E OF 35W AND S OF 17N TO THE ITCZ AXIS OVER THE TROPICAL
NORTH ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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