[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAR 21 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N8W 6N13W 5N19W 2N28W 1N41W
CROSSING THE EQUATOR AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 850W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 9W-16W
INCLUDING THE COAST OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE AND WITHIN 75 NM
ALONG THE IVORY COAST FROM 5W-7W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 18W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF OFF MISSISSIPPI
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA ALONG 25N90W 21N94W
INTO MEXICO JUST E OF VERACRUZ WITH A STATIONARY FRONT RUNNING
NW ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. A SURFACE
TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM MOBILE ALABAMA ALONG
25N88W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA JUST E OF MERIDA TO NW
CORNER OF GUATEMALA. MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS HEAVY RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM W OF AND 180 NM E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO INLAND OVER THE GULF COAST FROM FLORIDA NEAR
THE BIG BEND AREA TO OVER MISSISSIPPI AND ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF
27N TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA AND BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH
AND THE FRONT. NORTHERLY SURFACE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE
NW GULF. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A LARGE UPPER TROUGH THAT
IS CENTERED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER NE TEXAS AND EXTENDS S OVER
MOST OF THE GULF W OF 83W. THIS IS ENHANCING A JETSTREAM WITH
WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT ACROSS THE GULF N OF A LINE FROM NEAR
TUXPAN MEXICO TO FORT MYERS FLORIDA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE AREA W OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...
OVERCAST LOW LEVEL COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90
NM W OF THE FRONT WITH CLEAR SKIES ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF TODAY AND EXITING THE
AREA TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC FROM OVER NW HAITI EXTENDING ACROSS W JAMAICA TO
NEAR 17N81W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA NE ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
CONTINUE TO BANK LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
MAINLY S OF 11N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND NICARAGUA. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN LATER THIS MORNING AS
THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO
MOVE EASTWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE ATLC WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
BEYOND 32N34W. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 140 KT IS N OF A
LINE FROM ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR PALM BEACH ALONG 30N67W TO 26N42W.
A SURFACE RIDGE ALSO DOMINATES MUCH OF THE ATLC WITH A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING IT. THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N44W EXTENDING SW TO 24N60W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY TO JUST N OF HAITI NEAR 21N71W WHERE IT
BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N63W TO BEYOND 32N45W AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAK 1020 MB LOW IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 30N69W. A
WEAK 1020 MB HIGH IS SE OF THE FRONT NEAR 24N48W. OTHERWISE...
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER THIS
MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE






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